Monday, February 7, 2011

Arrest and Assumptions

Posted by Dhanabalakrishnan K

Finally CBI had the nerves to arrest "Spectrum" Raja, and how remained not a mystery, despite DMK within the alliance. As the arrest came at a time of general elections in Tamilnadu and gains momentum as the seat-sharing process is on the move between the parties, it does not fail to arise as many speculations as possible among both political parties and political observers. Though Congress claims the arrest to be the part of CBI's investigating process and that the law takes its own course, and Subramanya Swamy, who continues to harp on the allegations involved in 2G allocation, terms it poetically "the end of the beginning", the arrest might be a ruse to hoodwink the common populace who voted "the arrested" to power, as the Oppostion parties believe. Or an attempt to convince the Apex court, which is monitoring the CBI inquiry into the allegations and where the Congress "owned" CBI - as some believe - is to give the status report on 10 of this month. God only knows (if he exists).

May be, it is Congress' turn to play with DMK the political game. Making Karunanidhi wait for hours to meet Sonia Gandhi in Delhi; Submission of the report by the former justice Shivraj Patil who at the behest of the present Telecom Minister Kabil Sibal started his probe into the alleged allegations when Karunanidhi was in Delhi; CBI summoning Raja to inquiry for the fourth time and this was too when Karunanidhi was in Delhi; all in a row raised the assumptions that Congress wants to play the political game both at Centre and the State and to hold the key in the seat-sharing process, threatening DMK to yield to their expectations.

BJP, the main Opposition party and the party which stands firm on its demand of forming JPC to look into the scam comments on the arrest of Raja and the trio as "too little, too late". And, the comment is hundred percent correct. Despite the alleged scam in the 2G allocation sprouted in the Media in 2008 and the CBI, too, registered a case in October, 2009 itself, it took CBI for around 15 months to arrest the accused.

Sonia-led congress is far better and more calculative than Karunanidhi and his family owned DMK. Congress has killed many birds with single stone - the arrest of 'Spectrum' Raja. First the Congress may use the apprehension as a tactic to pressurize the reluctant DMK to allot more seats than DMK plans to; it may use the arrest an opportunity to project itself with clean image and to make people believe that it has no hands into the alleged allegations; and, finally, to convince the Supreme Court that it is speeding up the investigating process against the accused. Congress also knows that the arrest would cool its ally both at the centre and the state, Mamata Banarjee, and enable to go to people with clean image in the coming assembly elections in West Bengal.

The century old Congress is also aware of the fact it may face the ire and irk of DMK, if it proceeds taking DMK into the so-called investigating trap, and knows that it would get the backing from the AIADMK whose supremo Jayalalitha would go to any extent to extinct the DMK party and its supremo Karunanidhi, provided Congress assures her of grilling Karunanidhi in connection to 2G allocation. Congress never seems to believe that freebies would do any magic no longer in Tamilnadu.Also it gives a ground for both AIADMK and the Congress to use Spectrum allegation to tarn the image of and brand DMK a "corruptive" party. Family politics can be brought to the fore during the election campaigns.

Congress may think of forming and heading a third front in Tamilnadu taking in the DMDK, PMK and other regional and caste parties like Kongu Nadu Munnetra Kazhagam (KMK). DMDK's vote bank at around 10.2 percent, PMK's Vanniyar strength in North, KMK's Gounder strength in the West, and the anti-DMK wave among the Devendira Kula Vellalar in the South with its own 16 percent of vote may all do the trick in the forthcoming election. While AIADMK aims at getting the Congress out of the DMK alliance, it may also help AIADMK to win in a good number of seats, thus preventing DMK coming to power again and also making the possibilities for Congress to form coalition government with AIADMK. And if this happpens, AIADMK will be forced to back the Congress at the Centre, when her government is backed by Congress in the State.

Congress had a bitter experience with AIADMK, and because of the "I" image, Jayalalitha committed many mistakes in the past. But, fortunately for her party, she seemed to have corrected them so as to avoid yet another bitter one with Congress. Finally, Congress holds the reigns in the state.